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10.23.23

Q3 2023 North America Market Reports Released

INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW: ABSORPTION CONTINUES SLOWING, INVENTORIES TO SPIKE

Demand for industrial space remained positive in the United States and Canada in the third quarter, but growth this year has lost steam compared to strong net absorption totals of the last two years.

U.S. net growth in the third quarter totaled 29.9 million SF compared to 94 million SF for the same period last year.  Year-to-date net absorption is 110.2 million SF, down 62% from the same period last year. There was 411.7 million SF of growth in 2022. The 524.7 million SF of net absorption in 2021 stands as the record, but the current pace of tenant expansion is the slowest since 2012 and comes as a quarterly record of new inventory is set for delivery.

Net absorption in Canada fell from 41.5 million SF in 2021 to 29.1 million in 2022 and totals 16.4 million through Q3.  A quarterly record 12.5 million SF are set for delivery in Q4, and 32 million SF to be added next year should ease tight availability somewhat. Overall strong market fundamentals continue to attract investors who have shown an appetite for industrial properties despite higher interest rates and a deteriorating economic outlook.

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RETAIL OVERVIEW: DEMAND CONTINUES; RECESSION POSTPONED AGAIN

Demand for retail space across North America has remained resilient through the first three quarters of 2023 with healthy economic growth in the United States and Canada confounding expectations of a recession.

Net absorption in the United States through Q3 is positive, albeit about 25% behind average growth of the last two years. Tenant demand in Canada through the third quarter nearly equals the healthy tenant growth that occurred in 2020-21.Overall vacancy rates fell to all-time lows across the United States and Canada in the third quarter, but some merchants looking to expand may receive relief soon. In the U.S., about 30 million SF are scheduled for completion by April. In Canada, a record volume of space is slated for delivery in the fourth quarter. READ MORE HERE

OFFICE OVERVIEW: MODERATE DEMAND

In the United States, tenants shed 15.4 million SF of space in the third quarter bringing the year’s negative net absorption total to 55 million SF. That is equal to record losses through September of the first year of the pandemic and was unexpected as this year’s contraction follows two years of improved demand. Total occupancy in the United States is at its lowest level since 2017, despite a 12% increase in office-using workers. Leasing activity this year is 15% below pre-pandemic levels. New leases average 20% less space.  Additionally, the quantity of occupied but available space is more than 50 million SF above its historical norm, having risen steadily since mid-2020. READ MORE HERE

MULTIFAMILY OVERVIEW: VACANCY, RENTS; NORTH AMERICA’S BIFURCATED MARKETS

Despite strong tenant demand in the United States for the second straight quarter, the surge of new apartments emerging from the development pipeline continues to outpace demand, resulting in a sharp increase in vacancies and the lowest rent growth on record. READ MORE HERE

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